 
Ten
Common Mistakes Made by Blackjack
Players
by Henry Tamburin,
published on Wednesday, November
7 2001
After reading this article you will
never again make the typical playing
mistakes that are made by most blackjack
players. These mistakes result in
players losing about four times
more money in the long run compared
to players that know the right plays
(i.e. basic strategy players). It's
your money but my advice is to learn
how NOT to make these mistakes.
Standing on 12 when
the dealer shows a 2 or 3 "Every
time I hit my 12 when the dealer
shows a 2 or 3 it seems I always
get a 10 and bust so I stand instead
and let the dealer take the card."
That's the typical reason given
by players who hate to hit a 12
against a 2 or 3 because they are
afraid of drawing a 10 and busting.
The player who sits in the anchor
or third base position (last player
to act before the dealer) also hates
to hit because "they don't
want to take the dealer's bust card."
It turns out that
12 is slightly different than most
other "stiff" hands. Since
you can only bust when you draw
a 10, you've got a 9 out of 13 chance
that you'll actually survive the
hit. Also, with a 2 or 3 upcard
the dealer is not as vulnerable
as when he shows a 4, 5 or 6 upcard.
But even if you make the right play
and hit, you will still lose money
in the long run because a hand of
12 against a dealers 2 or 3 is a
losing hand. However, if you hit
you will end up saving in the neighborhood
of 2-4% of the money wagered compared
to standing. Therefore hitting is
the right play when you have a 12
against a 2 or 3, not because it
will win you more hands, but because
it will cut your losses on a loser.
Not splitting 8's
when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or
ace "A 16 against a 9, 10,
or ace is a loser. Why compound
my losses by splitting and betting
betting more?" Yes, getting
dealt a 16 against a 10 is a bad
hand. In fact it's one of the worst
blackjack hands you'll face. But
by splitting you can convert this
bad hand into two better hands of
8 where you have a better chance
of winning. Even so you will still
lose money on both 8's in the long
run but (and here's the catch) you'll
lose less money compared to one
hand of 16. How much? Figure you'll
cut your losses by 5-12%, which
is why splitting 8's against a dealer's
9, 10 and ace is the cheapest way
out of a bad situation.
Always taking even
money
"I always take
even money because it's one of the
few sure bets in the casino."
When you take even money you are
guaranteed a payoff equal to the
amount of your original bet regardless
of whether the dealer has a blackjack
or not. So, if you bet $10, and
take even money you will always
win $10. However, you could be averaging
a win of $10.40 (that's 4% more
money) by simply declining the even
money proposition. Here's why. About
9 times out of 13 the dealer will
not have a blackjack and you will
win $15 for the $10 initial wager.
The other four times the dealer
will have blackjack and you will
push. Overall this works out to
an average win of about $10.40 which
is 40 cents more than the "sure"
$10 win you'll get by taking even
money. So even though always winning
$10 is tempting this is one case
where a bird in the hand is not
worth more than two in a bush.
Always standing
on ace, 7 (soft 18) when the dealer
shows a 9, 10, or ace. "I never
hit a good hand of 18." Most
typical blackjack players believe
that 18 is a good hand that should
never be messed with. However if
your 18 consists of an ace and a
7 and the dealer shows a 9, 10 or
ace you have a negative expectation
(which means in the long run you
will lose more money then win).
The reason is because the dealer
will usually end up with a hand
that totals greater than 18 and
beat you. For example, when the
dealer shows a 10 he will end up
with a hand exceeding 18 about 52%
of the time (and that doesn't include
the times he will have a blackjack
hand). Hitting is the right play
because you will improve your hand
enough times to compensate for the
times you bust or end up with a
total less than 18. In fact you'll
gain about 8% by hitting when the
dealer shows a 9 and about 4% when
he shows a 10. Against a dealer
ace it's a toss up but the edge
is slightly in favor of hitting
in multiple deck games and in single
deck games where the dealer hits
soft 17.
Stand on 11 against
a dealer's 10
"I don't want
to double down against a potential
dealer's pat 20." Doubling
down is in fact the recommended
play even though it results in winning
the hand less frequently then hitting.
For example against a 10 you win
56% of the hands by hitting on average
and only 54% by doubling. Even though
your expectation of winning goes
down slightly, doubling is the preferred
strategy because when you do win
you will win double the original
wager. To put it even more succinctly,
doubling increases your chances
of losing more hands but increases
your chances of winning more money.
Never surrendering
"Why should
I give up without a fight?"
More casinos offer surrender as
a playing option. When a player
surrenders he automatically gives
up half his bet and forfeits the
right to play out his hand. Most
players won't surrender because
they either don't understand what
it means or because they don't want
to take a defeatist position when
they play blackjack. But guess what?
It's OK to surrender against some
hands because in the long run you
will be SAVING yourself some bucks.
Which hands? When you surrender
you lose 50% of your wager therefore
you should always surrender those
hands where your expectation of
losing is more than 50% of the wager.
Those hands are 16 when the dealer
shows a 9, 10 or ace (but not 8,
8) and 15 when he shows a 10.
Standing on a pair
of 9's against a dealer's 9 upcard
"No way am
I going to risk losing two bets
against a strong dealers 9 upcard."
Splitting 9's against a dealer's
9 upcard may seem like a suicidal
play but in the long run it will
save you money. Let's face it, when
you stand on 18 you are in deep
trouble against the 9 because the
dealer will often end up with a
pat 19. However, if you split, you
will often push with 19 but sometimes
do even better. Even though you
will occasionally lose both splits,
in the long run it's worth the risk
because you will save about 8% of
all the money wagered compared to
standing.
Standing on 16 against
a dealer's 7
"Every time
I hit a 16 I break therefore I'll
take my chances and stand."
You will often bust when you hit
16 but this is offset by the fact
that when you don't bust you have
a decent shot at beating the dealer.
Per dollar wagered, hitting will
turn a 48-cents a hand loser into
a 40-cent loser. You'll still be
losing when you hit but the consolation
is that you will be losing 8 cents
less in the long run compared to
standing.
Standing on ace,
6 against a dealer's 7.
"I've got a
chance to push so why risk losing
by taking a hit." Playing for
a push is a big mistake. In fact
this hand presents one of those
rare opportunities in blackjack
when you can turn a losing hand
into a winning hand. If you stand
you will lose on average about a
dime for every dollar wagered but
if you hit you have the expectation
to win 6 cents. That's a 16 cent
overall gain per dollar bet, which
makes hitting the preferred play.
Doubling down for
less money
"I'm not quite
sure if I should double or hit so
I'll compromise and double for less."
Nothing more sends chills down my
spine when I see a player with a
strong double down play double for
less money. This is the same as
shooting oneself in the foot. When
you double down you'll win slightly
less hands but you increase your
net gain because of the extra money
you bet when you double down. When
you double down for less money you
won't be getting the full advantage
of the reason why you doubled down
in the first place. Don't do it!
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