 
A jackpot hunter's
guide to Caribbean Stud
Some casino games
are for percentage players, some
are for jackpot hunters.
Blackjack, where
a basic strategy player can narrow
the house edge to half a percent
or less, depending on house rules,
is a percentage player's game. Percentage
players also home in on craps, with
a wide variety of bets ranging from
very good to horrendous. Baccarat,
with house edges of 1.17 percent
on banker and 1.36 percent on player,
appeals to players who know their
percentages.
Caribbean Stud Poker,
on the other hand, is a game designed
for jackpot hunters. The basic game
is no percentage player's delight,
with expert play leaving a house
edge of 5.22 percent of the ante
(or 2.7 pecent of the ante-bet combination).
As for the side
bet on the progressive jackpot ...
if the house edge were so high on
a slot machine, it would be illegal.
In Illinois, no slot machine may
return less than 80 percent of wagers
in the long run. That's a house
edge of 20 percent on the tightest
slot in the house. In Caribbean
Stud, when the progressive jackpot
stands at $10,000, the house edge
on the side bet is a whopping 73
percent.
A percentage of
each wager is added to the jackpot,
and the house edge does decrease,
but it's still so high most of the
time that most of my fellow gambling
writers advise players to skip the
progressive bet until the jackpot
nears $263,000, the break-even point
when the casino is using the game's
basic pay table.
(The basic pay table
gives the player $50 for a flush,
$75 for a full house, $100 for four
of a kind, 10 percent of the jackpot
for a straight flush and 100 percent
of the jackpot for a royal flush.
Many casinos pay a flat $5,000 instead
of 10 percent of the jackpot for
a straight flush. Some increase
the payoffs on flushes, full houses
and quads. But all those pays come
out of the overall jackpot, meaning
the payoff for a royal decreases
every time a smaller payoff is made.
Regardless of pay table, the biggest
factor in determining the house
edge on the progressive bet is the
size of the royal flush jackpot.)
I'm not quite as
adamant as some at warning players
off the progressive bet when the
jackpot is at low levels. Someone
who is playing Caribbean Stud is
not looking for the lowest possible
house edge. If that's what the player
wanted, he or she wouldn't be playing
Caribbean Stud in the first place.
No, Caribbean Stud
players are not percentage players.
They're jackpot hunters, looking
for that one big hit. Far better
if that one big hit is worth $263,000
or more than $10,000, but is the
size of the pot going to stop the
true jackpot hunter from chasing
it? Some are deterred by small numbers,
others figure that even a $10,000
hit for a $1 wager is nothing to
sneeze at.
Players who are
picky about their percentages should
understand that the house edge on
the progressive bet doesn't drop
to that slot machine maximum of
20 percent until the jackpot is
just shy of $195,000.
Just last week,
I saw a progressive meter at $50,000
at Hollywood Casino in Aurora. At
that level, the house edge is about
62 percent. What if the jackpot
hits $100,000--a nice-sized hit?
The house still has an edge of about
48 percent.
The worst one-roll
propositions in craps have a house
edge of 16.67 percent. How high
does the Caribbean Stud progressive
have to be before the house edge
is as low as even these bad bets?
Try $207,000. Double-zero roulette,
the biggest bankroll gobbler among
traditional table games, has a house
edge of 5.26 percent. The Caribbean
Stud jackpot has to hit $245,000
before the house edge is that low.
The plus side is
that once the jackpot passes $263,000,
the edge actually goes to the player.
At $300,000, there's an 11-percent
player edge. You'll never see anything
like that at the games favored by
percentage players.
However--and this
is a big "however"--the
chances of hitting a royal flush
do not increase with the size of
a jackpot. Royals occur an average
of once per 646,000 hands, regardless
of whether the jackpot holds $10,000,
$100,000 or $1 million.
The house edge tells
you that if you play from now till
the end of time for $10,000 jackpots,
you'll lose 73 percent of your money,
and if you play from here to eternity
for $263,000 jackpots you'll break
even. Someone playing for $10,000
jackpots will win just as often
as someone playing for $263,000
jackpots, but won't win as much
money on the big hits.
At once per 646,000
hands, most players will never see
a royal flush in Caribbean Stud.
Is it worth taking a chance? That's
a decision best left to each individual
jackpot hunter.
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