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Lesson
13:The
Advanced Course - Part 1
The
most powerful (legal) means of overcoming
the casino's edge in Blackjack is
to vary your bets according to the
true count. Additional gains of
.2 to .3% are available to those
who also vary the play of their
hands according to the true count.
You undoubtedly have had situations
where the count was sky-high and
just knew that hitting that 12 against
the dealer's 3 was going to get
you a face card. There is a point,
as measured by true count, where
standing with a 12 against a 3 is
more profitable than hitting. This
is called a 'basic strategy variation'
and you'll learn a lot of them in
this series.
Basic Strategy Variations
Modifying
the play of your hand according
to the true count will occur about
10% of the time. Should the count
drop, you will double less, hit
'stiff' hands more and split pairs
less often. As the count goes up,
you will double more often, hit
'stiffs' less and split pairs more.
For each basic strategy play, there
is only one variation. For example,
the variation for the hand 10, 6
versus 10 is to stand instead of
hit; you would never double and
you obviously may not split. Another
example is 5,4 versus 2. Basic strategy
says to hit, but if the count is
high enough, you would double this
hand. A good example on the minus
side is A-2 versus 5; basic strategy
says to double, but if the count
is below 0, you should just hit.
The easy way to remember something
like that is "Double Ace-2 vs. 5
at 0 or higher." Broken down into
the 'shorthand' of a flashcard it
is A-2 vs. 5 = 0. (Yes, we'll be
going back to our old friends, the
flashcards.)
The Power of Basic Strategy Variations
The
value of any variation is determined
by how often it will, on average,
be used. If you play 100,000 hands
of Blackjack a year ( about 20 hours
a week, year round), you can expect
to see a hand of 16 vs. 10 about
3500 times (3.5%). That's actually
the number 1 non-insurance situation.
Any variation here has considerable
value, simply because you'll be
using it relatively often. Conversely,
you will receive 9,9 vs. 2 only
43 times in that 100,000-hand sample,
so the variation here is of little
value, because you'll rarely use
it. The frequency of hands allows
us to prioritize the learning of
basic strategy variations.
One
of the most important variations
from basic strategy is the insurance
bet. Since the dealer will show
an Ace as an up card about 7.5%
of the time, knowing when it's profitable
to take insurance is very important.
If you are playing at a six deck
game, insurance is worthwhile when
the true count is 3 or higher. You
should always make the insurance
bet at that point, regardless of
what cards you're holding, since
it has no relationship with your
hand. The High/Low counting system
has an 'Insurance Efficiency' of
80% which means that 8 out of 10
times you'll be doing the right
thing when you make an insurance
bet based on the true count.
As
I mentioned earlier, considerable
value is gained by learning those
variations which involve starting
hands of 12-16 vs. any up card,
since those are the hands you'll
see most often. In fact, fully 54%
of all your hands will be 'stiff'
at some point in the playing. This
is a good place to make an important
point basic strategy variations
apply not just to your starting
hands, but also to hands composed
of 3 or more cards. You will stand
on A, 2, 10, 3 versus 10 if the
count is 0 or higher, as well as
a hand of 10, 6. Doubling (or not
doubling) is next in importance
and splitting/not splitting pairs
is least important.
The Value of Basic Strategy Variations
It's
safe to say that utilizing these
variations will increase your winnings
by 10% in the six-deck game. But
there's a major side-benefit to
them as well. By using these variations,
you'll look more like a 'gambler'
in the casino. Hitting 16 against
10 some of the time and standing
on it at other times is typical
gambler behavior. For those casino
supervisors who know proper basic
strategy (damn few!), seeing you
double A,7 versus 2 is crazy, just
as standing with 15 against a 10
is 'chicken'. Yet, all of those
are -- at certain counts -- the
correct play.
If
you play at a single-deck game,
the value of variations to basic
strategy soars to 25% or more. If
you spend any time at those games,
you must learn them.
In
the next lesson, I'll show you how
to learn these variations
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