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Lesson
16: To Split or Not To Split
The
primary factor to consider when
splitting pairs is whether or not
your casino of choice allows doubling
after splitting (DAS). If DAS is
allowed, you must have the proper
basic strategy memorized. I see
players make a lot of errors in
splitting pairs, primarily with
a hand of 8, 8. Most know that a
pair of 8s should be split against
all up cards, but most stand when
they hold them against a dealer's
10. The cost of that mistake isn't
huge, simply because a hand of 8,8
is fairly rare. But by standing,
a player has an expectation of -.537%
and by splitting (if DAS is allowed),
an expectation of -.483% is realized.
So, the extra money which is put
to risk does -- in the long run
-- give a better return. Think of
it this way. Would you rather stand
with a 16 against a 10 or hit an
8 against a 10? By splitting, you
get to hit an 8. Incidentally, the
numbers also indicate that splitting
is best when DAS isn't allowed,
though there isn't as big a difference.
As
the true count goes up, you'll split
more and as it goes down, you'll
split less. One play which is justified
by a high count is the splitting
of 10s. For example, there may come
a time when it's worthwhile to split
a pair of face cards against a 6.
I counsel my students to avoid that
play since it draws such a negative
reaction from other players at the
table. I don't really care what
the others at a table think of my
play, but if the floor personnel
are alerted to what I've done, their
initial suspicion may be that I'm
a counter. If they've seen me playing
good basic strategy and suddenly
I have a big bet out and I do something
like splitting 10s against a 6,
they're going to think I'm either
very stupid or very smart. I guess
it all relates to the image your
projecting in the casino; if it's
one of a 'wild man', then go for
it. But if you're quiet, polite
and a non-drinker, I'd advise against
making the play.
All
other splitting situations should
be followed to the letter; especially
that of splitting 4s against a 5
or 6 (if DAS is allowed). Most people
don't have the pairs part of basic
strategy memorized perfectly, so
they won't know what's right or
wrong when you do it and most think
it's wrong to split 4s. Nothing
quite like making the right play
and looking like a dummy when you
do it!
As
you go through the numbers on splitting
pairs, you'll see that some don't
agree with those published by Stanford
Wong and other authors. As I've
explained before, some have been
modified as a result of Friedman's
study on risk-averse play, and I
feel they take no advantage from
you yet do lower your risk somewhat.
Basic
Strategy Variations:
Double after split allowed. |
| 3,3
vs. 2 |
Hit
at 0 or lower. |
(Instead of splitting.) |
| 4,4
vs. 5 |
Hit
at 0 or lower. |
|
| 4,4
vs. 6 |
Hit at -2 or lower. |
|
| 6,6
vs. 2 |
Hit
at -2 or lower. |
|
| 8,8
vs. 10 |
Stand
at 8. |
(If
the count is really high, you
do stand instead of hit.) |
| 9,9
vs. 7 |
Split
at |
As
always, if you have any questions,
e-mail me at
aceten1@mindspring.com
and Ill get back to you ASAP.
Next
time I'll show you how test yourself
on the basic strategy variations.
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